Fig. 6

Increased TE mobilization under future climates. a Forecasted change of climatic envelope CE2 by genetic group under average CMIP6 SSP5–8.5 GCM for 2081–2100 compared to recent climate (1970–2000). b Predictive variance of the numbers of recent copies on 100 random testing sets of 100 accessions for GLMs based on population structure and allelic variation at NRPE1 (G), including BIO15 (G+BIO15), or with interactions between bio-variables and NRPE1 (GxE). c–e Predicted change by genetic group in copy numbers using GxE GLM with future climate predictions for 2081–2100 for c carriers of the reference NRPE1 allele and d carriers of the derived NRPE1’ alleles. e Spatial variations in BIO02 predicted for 2081–2100 and their outcome on copy-number changes by accession