Fig. 1

Distinct gut microbiome characteristics are associated with ESRD. a Principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) of the Bray–Curtis distances based on gut microbial species. Samples are depicted in the plot at the second and third principal coordinates (PC2 and PC3), along with the ratio of variance contributed by these two PCs. Ellipsoids represent a 95% confidence interval surrounding each group. b Permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) results showing the effect size of phenotype indexes contributing to the variance of the overall gut microbiome. The combined effect size of sex, age, and body mass index (BMI) is also shown. Bar plots indicate the explained variation (effect size R²) of each phenotype factor. ***, permutated p < 0.001. c Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of the classification of ESRD status using the random forest model. For each cohort, 70% of the samples were randomly selected as the training set, and the remaining 30% of the samples were used as the testing set. The performances of models trained on one cohort and tested on the other are also shown. The classification performance of the model was assessed using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The AUC values and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are shown. d Overall representation of the 353 ESRD-associated species with a consistent trend observed in both the Shanghai and Beijing cohorts. The numbers of ESRD-enriched and HC-enriched species for each genus are shown